LSU vs. ALABAMA, Nov 5th 2011, Tuscaloosa AL
Many of you have asked me to break my ban on jinxy pre-game predictions for the ALABAMA vs. LSU matchup on November 5th. As this is a game I’ve already lost a little sleep over, I was reluctant to do so at first. But after a few nudges I couldn’t resist it any longer.
So without wasting any more time, here’s my not so popular take on the BAMA v. LSU Matchup.
But not without a shameless plug:
Here we go:
To me this year’s LSU is a lot like the 2009 Florida Gators (Tebow’s last year). They were the end all of college football. But the truth was that they hung so many style points on opponents that it was very difficult to recognize their faults.
A lot of analysts and talking heads will use LSU’s entire body of work and compare it against BAMA’s entire body of work and draw a quick conclusion that sounds good and looks good but just isn’t right.
ON THE CONTRARY!
1. First we need to take a few games off the LSU table because it neither helps nor hurts the argument.
A. FLORIDA: This LSU home game does not help or hurt. The Gators were on their 3rd string quarterback and were fresh off a tough home loss to Alabama.
B. TENNESSEE: The Vols did not stand a chance in this one and they too were on their backup quarterback.
C. AUBURN: While hanging 40+ on the defending National Champs should never be taken lightly, this game is not important at all in the LSU saga. As a matter of fact, this may be the most irrelevant of their wins this year. (sorry Auburn, no hard feelings)
While in reality, judging how good the 2011 LSU squad actually is, is a lot like getting your blood pressure checked: Sometimes the top number matters, sometimes the bottom number matters.
2. Next we need to take the games LSU has played that do matter and decide which number matters.
A. OREGON: Neutral Site, W 40-27, bottom number. This is also known as the game that started all the LSU hype to begin with. If The Ghost of College Football Past ever knocks at my door we’re going to find out what the big story would be had LSU opened with LA Tech!
I digress! The bottom number matters here because Oregon has an explosive offense but a defense that couldn’t stop a girl’s high school tennis team.
LSU was not at home for this one and the Ducks racked up 27 on them before the game ended. And had it not been for a couple turnovers and one bleach blonde honey badger this margin would have been closer.
Well why doesn’t the fact that no matter who or where they play the Bayou Bengals end up hanging 30+ on most opponents? That’d be because of Mississippi State.
B. MISSISSIPPI STATE: AWAY, W 19-6, top number. The top number matters here for exactly the opposite reason it didn’t matter for Oregon, because MSU & the fighting cowbells have no offense, but have a strong SEC defense.
While MSU’s D isn’t as good as Bama’s, this is the closest they’ve came to a defense that’ll compare to The Tide’s this year.
Many will scream, yell and protest in the streets proclaiming: “AUBURN HUNG 41 ON EM’!” This may be so, but the Auburn that beat MSU was fresh off a scary win to Utah State. Add that to home field advantage and MSU was bound to fall short, even if by half of a yard.
And, it was because of the Auburn v. MSU (W AU 41-34) game that LSU got known for having such a killer D in the first place. No one wants to go back and see that Georgia & South Carolina also held the cowbells to similar margins (UGA 10, SCAR 12). I’d even be willing to say that these teams didn’t have such stellar defense it’s just Auburn that has a really bad one… Yep, I’d be pretty willing to say that if I had to.
The takeaway here is that the Mississippi State that played LSU was a team that had their feelings hurt and was hungry. How did MSU only allow the Tigers to score 19 when so many have let them double that? This is a factor that’ll play into the big picture.
C. WEST VIRGINIA: AWAY, W 47-21, bottom number. Once again the bottom number matters because the opposing team had no defense or chance in heck to win for that matter (sorry Big East fans).
This is another example of how LSU has formed a pattern of letting semi to high powered offenses pound away at them on the road.
Whether it’s 21 or 27, these scores are too high for out of conference opponents that are supposedly playing the best team in the SEC and the nation.
3. Now we take all 3 of these games and compress them down. What do all 3 of these games have in common for LSU? How can these common threads and the numbers that go along with them paint the picture of how LSU will fare in Tuscaloosa on November 5th?? Read on!
A. Like the Alabama game, they are all AWAY games (I include neutral site as “away” because if it’s not in corndog country it’s not 100% home).
B. Two of these teams managed to put up multiple touchdowns on LSU using their big time offenses against them. Alabama might not be Oregon as far as speed, but they’ve got heavy hitters that’ll wear down a defense in a 4 quarter span.
C. One of these teams, the only SEC team, held them to 19 points on the road. And as previously mentioned; Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs aren't exactly Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, but to hold LSU to a mere 19 points isn’t an easy task. Just ask West Virginia and Oregon.
It is with these observations and my picking apart of LSU’s season with a fine toothed comb that I conclude that LSU isn’t entirely the powerhouse that many would like to think and dream about on days when Ohio State, Michigan and Notre Dame lay dormant.
LSU is just a notch or so better than Arkansas. If Arkansas had the experience on that the Tiger had, they’d be identical.
LSU is just a notch or so better than Arkansas. If Arkansas had the experience on that the Tiger had, they’d be identical.
And now, without further adieu: The FINAL SCORE (but first a word from our sponsor)
You can read this and many more college football & interesting posts on The Southern Catholic’s Blog! http://raisedsoutherncatholic.blogspot.com/
FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 31 …. LSU 17
